Friday, June 24, 2016

Brexit. What’s next? Answers to frequently asked questions – Gazeta Wyborcza

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Tomasz Bielecki, Maciej Czarnecki, cooperation Stysiak Martin

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
           
           
             


             

                  
                          What the  Brexicie?

What the Brexicie? (Andrew Boyers / REUTERS / REUTERS)

                  
                  
                  


                  
             

             
   
   
   
 
 
 
 
Are British referendum can still loosen? Who will replace David Cameron? And what about the EU budget? 11 questions that should know the answer.

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
                          
 

                 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
         


Article opened within the limits of free digital subscriptions

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Battle of Brexit

1. Who and how to vote in the referendum?

Entitled were 46.5 million people in the UK, Ireland and Commonwealth countries over the age of 18 living in the United Kingdom and Britons living abroad for less than 15 years. Poles in Britain had no right to vote, unless they got British citizenship.

Voted 33.5 million people, which gave the turnout of 72.2 percent. Brexitem opted for 17.4 million, and for staying in the EU - 16.1 million. There were 26 thousand. invalid votes.

2. Why Brits chose Brexit?

BBC Hot indicates the eight reasons:

* Numerous warnings of experts and politicians about the consequences of the economic Brexitu turned against supporters of Europe - many people voted against the Establishment;

* worked slogan that Britain pays the Brussels weekly 350 million pounds (not including a discount on the membership fee, and the money that come back to the Island, but the brexitowcy no longer speak);

* Nigel Farage, head of the eurosceptic party UKIP, threw tons debate about immigration;

* voters have stopped listening to Prime Minister David Cameron;

* Labour Party could not mobilize their supporters;

* Brexit supported the "heavyweights" - former mayor of London Boris Johnson and Minister of justice Michael Gove;

* was high turnout among the elderly that are more Eurosceptic;

* Europe has always seemed a bit alien to the British.

3. How will run out of Great Britain from the EU?

The referendum - from a formal point of view - does not alter the relations of London with Brussels. Only an official letter from the British Government to the European Council of his intention to leave the Community would start the Article 50 of the EU Treaty. For his power negotiations on behalf of the Union would lead the Commission, may take up to two years.

At this time, the United Kingdom will remain a member of the EU - with the rights, responsibilities and MEPs parties in the European parliament. But it will not participate in the deliberations and decisions of the other 27 countries that will apply to negotiate the terms of the divorce. Extension of the two-year period - which is unlikely - it requires the unanimous consent of the rest of the Member States. Treaty on the output on behalf of the Community contain the EU Council (of ministers from the Union) by qualified majority and with the consent of the European Parliament.

Two years is not enough for a comprehensive definition of new relations London - Brussels, which probably would be negotiated - after Brexicie - in another contract or contracts. Approvals of parts of them also require the unanimous consent of the members of the Union. It may take another 5-8 years.

4. Is British politicians may decide to unscrew the electorate?

Out with the EU have to approve the British Parliament - EU law does not require this, but the British did. Most members of the current term of office is for staying in the EU, but in the local political culture so blatant opposition to the will of the people is unthinkable. Prime Minister David Cameron has repeatedly said that it will respect.

Theoretically, the gate will open up to, if the House of Commons two-thirds majority decided early elections and had won them party promising to maintain London in the Union - then you could try to explain that the nation reversed the decision (when huge protests brexitowców).

5. Who will succeed David Cameron?

Among the candidates for the new leader of the Conservative Party mentioned b. London Mayor Boris Johnson, Minister of Justice Michael Gove'a and the head of the Ministry of Interior Theresa May. This indeed supported the campaign will remain in the EU, but too much is not leaning, and was previously known for its Euroscepticism. It may be a candidate, who will try to bridge the divisions within the party.

6. Is Scotland leaving the United Kingdom?

In a referendum for independence from 2014. The Scots were in favor of staying at the side of London. But now definitely they chose the EU (62 to 38 per cent.). According to the politicians, the autonomous government of Scotland with the Scottish National Party (SNP) is a radically changes the situation. His boss Nicola Sturgeon said yesterday that "the referendum on independence is now very likely."

7. Is Northern Ireland to leave the United Kingdom?

Belfast also spoke in favor of the EU (55.8 to 44.2 percent.). Republican Sinn Fein called for a referendum on leaving the United Kingdom and unification with Ireland. The head of the autonomous government of Northern Ireland Arlene Foster, Democratic Unionist Party, however, ruled out such a scenario. The basic question is whether the British government would introduce Brexicie checks numbering 499 km border of Northern Ireland and Ireland. Many Irish themselves do not imagine, but he would be the external border of the EU.

8. How Brexit affect the situation of 850 thousand. Poles in Britain?

1 June the leaders of the main group Vote Leave, Boris Johnson and Michael Gove stated jointly that immigrants from the EU, who are already living in the United Kingdom, will be treated "no less favorable than it is today" and retain the unlimited right of residence. But by 2020. Will be introduced immigration point system (modeled on the Australian) for new immigrants. It assumes that - to work in the UK - you will need to obtain the appropriate number of points for the educational and professional qualifications. One of the requirements is a good knowledge of English.

The statement does not prejudge anything yet, because of the new rules will ultimately decide the new government - regardless of who is standing on its head. But even Eurosceptic UKIP, the UK Independence Party, did not call for the expulsion of the current EU immigrants.

It is quite possible that it will increase the fee for the Poles for studies in the UK, but certainly not right away. Today EU citizens are paying as much as the British. After leaving London Union may begin to treat them as students from outside Europe. This would mean higher tuition.

9. What are the consequences of the referendum for the EU budget for 2014-20?

Poland, which was to get more than 100 billion euros, will receive less because the United Kingdom will not transfer all previously declared sum. The British are the fourth largest net contributor and contribute to the EU budget of almost 8.5 billion pounds. Without this contribution Poland could lose nearly 16 percent. Money from the EU, ie approx. 6.5 billion zł - calculate the analysts of ING Bank Slaski. - Given that the UK has to leave the EU two years, it becomes approx. 2018., Will pay money to the EU budget by nearly five out of seven years perspective 2014-20. Therefore, the loss in European payments for the Polish would be negligible.

- We should remember, however, that the United Kingdom shall derive money from the Union. It will be a loss for both sides. Of course, Poland will lose the most - said prof. Catherine Duczkowska-Malysz was the Deputy Minister of Agriculture and lecturer at the School of Economics in Warsaw.

10. What negotiations TTIP, a free trade agreement EU - USA?

Not only TTIP, but also all international trade is now one of the biggest nightmares negotiation London. This trade is the domain of the Union subject to very close cooperation between members of the community and, therefore, in principle regulate the bilateral agreements between the EU and third countries. If London radically withdraw from the EU acquis have been no contracts with many countries outside Europe. He would have to rely mainly on the rules of the World Trade Organization.

One of the solutions would be to negotiate so much deeper free trade agreement between the United Kingdom. Britain and the EU, would in some way and at least partially covered part of London in the existing EU agreements. In any case, without specifying these principles negotiate a free trade agreement the EU-US will be in a legal black hole. From the Union negotiator is the European Commission under a mandate from the 28 EU countries, including Britain. Theoretically, you can imagine the negotiation and conclusion TTIP before the formal Brexitem (eg. A year, year and a half), but this is unlikely. Perhaps TTIP - even at the stage of negotiations - will be limited to 27 members of the EU. Perhaps - if she was in trouble and without Brexitu - negotiations fall into complete deadlock.

11. What Donald Tusk?

the current 2.5-year term Tusk as European Council president ends in late May and June 2017. the Treaty of Lisbon allows to perform this function for a maximum of two terms, or extend it once for a further 2.5 years.

Tusk patronized negotiated settlement between London and the EU (eg to limit benefits for EU workers in the UK). Finalized it at the EU summit in February 2016. The settlement did not help David Cameron in a referendum, but its content and the way of conducting negotiations by Tusk well assessed and Brussels, and the same Cameron.

No one in the highlands of Brussels not looking now blame Tusk. On the contrary, it appears that the arduous negotiations Brexitu may even reinforce its position. Also, because - at least outside Polish - hardly anyone in the EU will have a head to think or not to replace it with something new already in 2017.

         


         


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