the United States and Russia cease-fire in Syria has led to deeskalacji fighting, although not provided access for humanitarian assistance covered by the fighting areas. It should not, however, expect that will be the beginning of the end of the war.
American Experts are in front of the beautiful hopes that the ceasefire will be permanent, and this will lead to the termination of the bloody conflict. The civil war in Syria in five years has already claimed about half a million fatal victims, prompted him to flee the country, over 2 million refugees.
Some accuse the Secretary of US state John Kerry stone that signing a ceasefire agreement with Russian foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, made too great concessions in favor of Moscow.
the terms of the agreement held negotiations with the head of American diplomacy, your reputation is of his conflict with the Pentagon.
In a radio interview NPR John Kerry said Wednesday that “there is no alternative" to the agreement with Russia, because the US will not send in ground troops, which was ordered by President Barack Obama.
- If there is no ceasefire now, the fight worsens and there will be more victims and more refugees heading to Europe. (…) If the war continues, there will be more suicide bombers in kamizelkach with bombs, ” he said.
Some commentators agree with Kerrym that at least a partial cessation of hostilities will save lives of many people. Short – term improvement is not unimportant – means a lot to people living in fear for their lives, ” he wrote in “Foreign Policy" Randa Slim.
“the Truce will not last long”
mostly, though, the pessimism. Experts agree that the truce will not last long, because the contract stipulated the solution of the problems underlying the conflict – above all, the fate of the regime of President Bashar al-Assad.
the truce will continue for a short time, but without observers, guarding to comply with it will be destroyed, probably in a few weeks, as the previous agreements of this type. The main obstacle is Assad. Russia may cooperate with US in attacking extremists, but doesn’t want regime change in Syria. Americans may be willing to agree to something skromniejszego, but not the Syrian opposition, ” said RAHR, an expert on the Middle East from the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) at Johns Hopkins University in Washington, D.C., Daniel Server.
the Chairman of the Council on foreign Relations (CFR) Richard Haass believes that “we hope that the Syrian conflict will be, he is going to end, will not be executed, because the opposition in Syria will not agree to leave Assad in power.
a Similar opinion was expressed Hassan Mneimneh with the Middle East Institute in Washington.
- the Cease-fire can survive for some time, but this is an illusion. They have built on dysonansie between the main actors in the Syrian conflict: the US and Russia. Moscow has a clear strategic vision: it intends to firmly support the Assad regime. Washington would like to remove it, but sees no way, so he prefers to keep limbo until, until new circumstances, or until the responsibility for the discharge of the crisis will move to the new administration, ” said Mneimneh.
the Pentagon would not replace intelligence
the Agreement of the Kerry-Lavrov provides, inter alia, that an interview with the American armed forces will share with Russia information necessary to define the objectives of the Islamic State and attack another extremist organization, Dżabat Fatah al-Szam (formerly known as the al-Nusra Front).
As reported by "New York Times", a collaboration with Moscow did not want the Pentagon and its chief ash Carter. During a teleconference last week, it became clear that there was a conflict in the background between the Ministry of defence and Department of state. The Pentagon fears that the exchange of information with Russia will promote its interpretation of American methods of attack targets from the air, which she can use in case of possible confrontation with NATO forces in Europe.
according to “the new York times, Kerry Kennedy and his advisers, the position of the Pentagon “was a reflection of thinking zimnowojennego”.
they Believe (advisers Carry ego) that the Russians don’t want to get bogged down in Syria, and they will, to some extent, to cooperate, says new York magazine.
this Cooperation is highly critical of the experts associated with conservative think just as the American Enterprise Institute (AEI). One of them, Thomas Donnelly, likened diplomacy Kerri it prompted the Republican candidate to the White House, Donald trump, the policy of unconditional cooperation between the U.S. and Russia in Syria.
If Donald trump will look for the candidate at his Secretary’s talents and experience to make concessions in favor of Vladimir Putin, will not find better than John Kerry, wrote Donnelly in the right the weekly “The Weekly Standard".
he Believes that the ceasefire is beneficial only for Assad and Russia and will further increase the distrust of the Syrian opposition to the United States.
the Cease-fire will work more in favor of the regime and its sponsors (Russia and Iran – PAP), who have shown great will to escalate the conflict than for the benefit of the opposition, which is even less trust now America must rely on the help of the Arab governments of the Persian Gulf and global organizations dżihadystycznych.(…) Summing up, the Obama administration embodies the Doctrine of trump, the article says the expert AEI.
In a broader partnership, U.S. engagement with Russia does not believe Hassan Mneimneh. According to him, Russia is aware that Washington dictates its conditions, and the upcoming elections in the United States to further change the situation in its favor – and this is regardless of the result.
If you win, Hillary Clinton, we can expect that the regime, with the help of Russia, will still struggle to improve their situation trump card in the confrontation with Clinton, before she would develop a new policy toward Syria. If trump will win, Russia allows himself less commitment, waiting to see what trump will just give it to Syria, the expert said Middle East Institute.
PAP/IAR/agkm
No comments:
Post a Comment