Intervening militarily in Syria Russians returned to the global game. They seem, however, hundreds of millions of euros and expose themselves to many years of military involvement in the Middle East and the overwhelming hostility of the Arab world.
Increased by Russia of bombing in Syria have strengthened significantly forces loyal to Bashar al-Assad and allow him a few days to take the initiative on the northwestern front of the Syrian civil war.
Assad regains control over the coast
Civil offensive Syrian branches of government, with the support of Russian aircraft, led to reflections at the hands of rebels Salma town in the province of Latakia.
Thus, in the hands of the military regime was practically the whole strip of Mediterranean coast, dominated by surrounding the village hill.
This is the biggest military success Assad since the beginning of the Russian intervention, ie from 30 September last year.
Its location was very heavy, subordinate forces control only a tenth of the country’s territory. And the enemies of Assad prepared to task him the final blow was from the region Salma.
This located on the north-eastern edge of the province of Latakia village was inhabited before the civil war jointly by alawicką minority (derived the Assad clan, dominant on the coast) and the Sunni majority, which in this area are mainly Turkomans, or people related to Turks. Salma is located just a few kilometers from the Turkish border, where the Turkmens flows in weapons and supplies.
The free hand of Moscow
As part of an agreement with the Russians Assad air base received Chmejmim. Expanded its airport, they equip them in radars and electronic warfare. In guiding the objectives helps Russian satellite navigation system GLONASS, the answer to GPS.
recently disclosed military agreement with Mokswą Damascus, it shows that Russian intervention forces gained a free hand in action and guarantee impunity caused their destruction and war crimes.
The Western states and international organizations have criticized the Russians for their bombing civilian targets in Syria. Public opinion shaken by the news of the city Madhai, where besieged for several months by government forces residents and refugees were dying of hunger.
What are fighting the Russians?
Intensive bombing carried out by the Russians on the border between the Syrian-Turkish belie the official position of Moscow, which maintains that its intervention in Syria aims at combating Islamic State. Recently, the general was not there because troops jihadists under the sign of the black flag.
It is thus clear that the real purpose of the intervention of the Russians in Syria to support Assad, the West would like to be removed from power.
It is no accident coalition Moscow-Damascus tries as much as possible to get by the military fait accompli just before having to begin Jan. 25 peace talks in Geneva to reinforce their bargaining position of the Assad regime, and first of all prove that Russia will be one of the key players at the table of negotiations about the future of Syria.
It is clear also that the offensive forces of the regime in Syria is a signal to Turkey after the shooting down of its Russian combat aircraft. Russian President Vladimir Putin does not throw words to the wind by announcing that the Turks will pay for this act – not only politically.
tilt the scales of victory?
Do you progress offensive backed by Russian aviation represent a lasting breakthrough in the civil war in Syria?
Stocks offensive by government forces are carried out not only in the area of Salma, but also in other places, including primarily in the area of Aleppo, the largest city in northern Syria, about which the now fighting virtually all major parties to the civil war, including the Islamic State and the coalition of ethnic Kurds, Turkmens, Assyrians and Arabs (ie. The Syrian Democratic Forces), supported by the US. The best positions are there for the time being to linked to Al-Qaeda Al-Nusra Front and the Islamic State.
Aleppo is hardly approx. 50 km from Turkey. Also in this area increased Russian bombing seriously hindered supplies to Ankara supported by its forces in Syria. Russia makes a turkey what I do not tolerate in their neighborhood: prances after its “near abroad”.
It is difficult at the moment to judge whether the intervention of Russia in Syria is able to permanently turn the tide on the side of the regime forces. The more that the Syrian civil war are involved in a variety of Western and regional powers – the US and France, after Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Global ambitions of the Kremlin
Neither the details of military operations or the details of political game must not hide what is most important. The annexation of the Crimea and Donbas aggression were a sign that Moscow does not intend to give up the treatment of post-Soviet space as its exclusive sphere of influence. Military intervention in Syria is to show that Russia is a modern military power with a global reach and an equally vast imperial ambitions. The raids have lead to their execution.
The bombing in Syria participate, among others, jets, supersonic strategic bombers Tu-160. The heaviest combat aircraft in the world (with off mass of almost 300 tons) with variable geometry wings are capable of intercontinental operations. To fire missiles on targets in Syria overcame among others route from the Kola Peninsula and the Barents Sea – making a huge circle on the northwest over Europe – flew over the Mediterranean Sea from the side of Gibraltar.
From a purely military point of view, such a route does not make sense, but Russia comes to demonstrate to the West the capabilities of their armed forces.
In addition, by engaging militarily in Syria Russians wanted to prevent the loss of naval base in the Syrian port of Tartus, which was almost taken for granted in the event of a natural Assad. A Tartus is a window to the world for the Russian navy, enabling its presence in the strategically important region of the Mediterranean, the keystone of three continents.
The intervention in Syria, the first military expedition of Russia outside its direct sphere of influence since the end of the Cold War. Moscow all and sundry communicates that it can not be isolated in the international arena, in spite of the sanctions imposed by the US and the European Union for the actions of Russia against Ukraine.
It’s hard to imagine any ws peace negotiations. Syria without a significant share of Moscow.
Soderbergh
In the case of the bombing in Syria bring Moscow political benefits, but in the long term may prove disastrous brawl. In many ways.
intervention in Syria may hamper the Kremlin’s policies in the Middle East. Russia is firmly committed to one – Shia – the fundamental conflict in the region. The game recently in one team with Iran, Hezbollah and Syrian Alawitami, which is not in the taste of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Egypt, and in general – all Sunnis, who constitute the majority in the Arab and Muslim world in general.
As a result of involvement in Syria Russia escalated its relations with an important neighbor – Turkey, on which I have already lost a lot of money. Frozen been joint strategic economic projects – the construction of nuclear power plant and gas pipeline. Losses as a result of these decisions are counted in billions of euros, which is a powerful blow to the Russian economy in crisis.
Intervention in Syria still have it worse. The Russians daily spend on it a few million euros, most recently performing up to 100 sorties per day. Iran has allocated for its part in the war on the side of Assad and lost tens of billions of at least hundreds of people have died in the fighting alongside Syrian government forces. Russia threatens the same, because to withdraw from military operations will not be easy. The United States and its allies 15 years leading the military operations started under the banner of the war on terrorism. Their decision can not be seen on the horizon.
Julius Urbanowicz, PolskieRadio.pl
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