According to pre-election polls, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could lose power in the country , photo:
Before the elections, which will decide whether Benjamin Netanyahu, in power continuously for seven years, will head the government for the fourth time, the popularity of the bloc fell and maintained the advantage Zionist center-left block Isaac Herzog and Tzipi Livni.
But in Israel, President entrusted the mission of forming the government is not necessarily the winner of the election, but he who among the 120 deputies of the Knesset is able to create a majority coalition.
The third place in the polls was the United Arab List, electoral bloc of Arab communities, focusing on their lists of both Muslims and Christians, Jews and Druze.
Results on Thursday
In the end of the campaign, the issue of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was not of great importance. The opposition has focused on criticizing Netanyahu government inaction or helplessness regarding the ever-rising housing prices, corruption at high levels of government as well as diplomatic clash with Washington against Iran’s nuclear program.
Entitled to vote is almost 5.9 million voters who will be able to cast their vote in the chair. Polish 6-21 time. First results are expected exit poll immediately after the polls closed. In contrast, the final results should be announced on Thursday afternoon – Israeli electoral commission said.
The observers caution that because of the electoral arithmetic, probably a few weeks you will have to wait for the name of the new head of government. During the weekend of Netanyahu and Herzog ruled creation after the election of the government of national unity.
A multitude of small parties forming the parliament makes the process of government formation is complex and chronically unstable coalitions. In Tuesday’s election for voters struggling candidates from 25 lists; according to surveys 11 of them can be represented in parliament.
According to the Israeli commentators that Netanyahu, the Likud despite a weaker position in the polls, is more likely to create a coalition with the support of centrist parties, religious and orthodox. Larger problems with building an alliance may Herzog, as left-wing parties, whose main characteristic is gentler approach to the Palestinian issue, on the Israeli political scene is not much.
“It is possible an unprecedented event”
– For the first time in many years, no one knows who will be the new prime minister of Israel. It is possible the Government of the Arab parties, which would be an unprecedented event, comparable with the election of Barack Obama as President of the United States – rated Shevach Weiss.
Former Israeli ambassador to Poland said that in order to understand the current political situation in Israel, you have to realize that political culture which prevails in the country. – Never in Israel, and they are already twenty-election to the Knesset, did not disclose the party having a majority alone. There have always been big parties, which had the support of 40 percent. For many years it was the Labour Party, and later with the great power of right-wing Likud. Each of them to create a majority coalition needed a smaller group, which was one of the most religious parties – Weiss said.
He noted that the last decade has brought major divisions within the party, has led to a situation in which both the ruling Right now Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and leftist opposition bloc as a Zionist, can only count on about 20 percent. all votes.
– Block Zionist, consisting of the Labour Party and Isaac Herzog led by Tzipi Livni group Movement, founded on the ruins of Ariel Sharon’s Kadima has an advantage now only 3-4 seats, which, overall, little mean – says Weiss.
The former ambassador said that a large role in the creation of a new government is the president of Israel Reuven Riwlin that after the elections the mission entrusted to form a new cabinet is not necessarily the winner of the election, but he who among the 120 deputies of the Knesset is able to create a coalition, ensuring the support of other parties.
Several possible scenarios
According to Weiss, this situation creates a number of possible post-election scenarios – it is very likely Benjamin Netanyahu, after so many years as the office of the prime minister will not be able to create a coalition. That’s why these elections are so personal and very sharp, because for the first time in 14 years, when he was prime minister Ehud Barak left-wing politician, Prime Minister of Israel would not have been a right-wing politician – he said.
In his view, if it wins the election Block Zionist-it-yourself Herzog also will not be able to build a majority in the Knesset. – Leader of the Labour Party will have a problem to find a coalition partner, which will give him the most. Among the other party is the only one left-wing group, ie., The Communist Party, which, however, does not guarantee Herzog majority. The other potential future coalition partners are either religious parties as the third party in the polls Arab alliance that can earn 13-14 per cent., Or groups with much the opposite of the Labour Party-minded – he noted.
– It is important to understand what it means to be a left-wing in Israel today. Those with a policy of compromise with respect to relations with Palestine are called Left, and those who approach the harder the conflict, it is right now. Social and economic affairs these are just slogans, Jews and Arabs in Israel are unable to agree on these issues, and sometimes in these topics is right is more leftist and vice versa, as is the case in Poland – emphasizes Weiss.
In his opinion, even if Herzog will be the first in the elections, to the end that it is difficult to predict whether it will create a majority coalition. In contrast, the key to the puzzle may be the post-election centrist parties: It’s Future, My All, and the party of immigrants from the former Soviet Union Avigdor Lieberman.
– Pretty much the last few days in Israel, said that the three centrist parties may create a parliamentary block and then the center will have more members than Herzog and Livni and Netanyahu separately separately. They might have a chance to create a coalition with both Herzog and with Netanyahu, and that would mean that one of the leaders of the centrist Prime Minister will then – says Weiss.
Another variant, which is also strongly present in this campaign, according to former ambassador to one in which the Netanyahu coalition reaches of Herzog and the establishment of a joint national government. Although – as he said Weiss – now both politicians exclude such a scenario.
According to Weiss, there is another possible scenario, which is louder in Israel. It envisages the creation of a coalition of left-wing parties in Arabic. – It would be a precedent in the history of the state of Israel is comparable with the choice of the first black president of the United States Barack Obama. The question is whether the current political class and the people of Israel are ready for such a surprise – he said.
“The Israelis are seeking security”
An expert and journalist Israel Radio Three Marcin Gutowski stresses that the reason for such an unexpected return to Israel include the growing economic crisis in Israel, including dearness. – Israelis seek safety on social issues. Problems in the housing market are gigantic. Housing prices and rent are horrendous. The cost of living and life are very high and it is hurting Israelis. They do not want to hear about the threat from Iran, but they want to live peacefully, rent cheap apartments, paying less for food and gasoline – says Marcin Gutowski.
Three Journalist and author of the book just published “The Holy Land. Tales from Israel and Palestine, “adds that the current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for many years focused primarily on the threat posed by Iran and the Palestinians. But he says Marcin Gutowski, a large part of the Israelis ceased to respond to such frightening.
– It seems to me that Benjamin Netanyahu przeszarżował. It’s frightening external threat that the same applied so far effect and providing security against falling rockets from Gaza, Israelis no longer suffice. They want a peaceful life for less money – Gutowski said.
IAR, PAP, kh
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