Polls have failed completely with the results of the election. Why? – TVN24
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Photograph: Chris Radburn / PAP / EPA | Video: TVN24 Business and the World Party Ed Miliband lost, although opinion polls gave her tie with the Tories
Thursday’s elections to the House of Commons was a defeat not only Labour to and liberal Democrats, but also UK companies researching public opinion. The Conservative Party led by David Cameron won an absolute majority of seats, while polls predicted that no party will be able to achieve this.
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has not flowed results from all 650 circuits, but it is already known that the Tories have won at least 326 seats – enough to govern alone.
Meanwhile, the Labour Party will have in the new parliament no more than 240 deputies, although polls published before the election, these numbers look quite different. The Tories and Labour rejoiced in them similar support at the level of 32-33 percent. However, the Conservatives won 37 percent of the vote, and the Labour Party – 31 percent.
– The election results pose a huge challenge for companies survey. We will revise our methods and nakłonimy the British Council for Public Opinion Research to prepare a report – said on Twitter the company Populus survey.
Some of the companies, as Survation and ComRes, defended his survey, indicating that the anticipated success of the Scottish Party National Liberal Democrats defeat and rise in popularity of eurosceptic United Kingdom Independence Party (which did not translate into the number of seats).
Back “shy Tory”
The defeat of companies in this year’s election surveys similar to the situation in 1992. Then, public opinion researchers predicted victory of the Labour Party and the Conservatives won decisively, with a predominance of 9 percentage points.
This huge discrepancy between the polls and the results in 1992 was attributed to the so-called effect. “Shy Tory”. It was the conservative part of the electorate that she was ashamed to admit in the survey to their liking, as the Conservative Party was then seen as unpopular.
However, as pointed Rob Ford, one of the most respected political scientists in the UK, the company survey of then they are taken the action that took eliminate this effect. This phenomenon can therefore at best, only partly explain the discrepancy of 2,015 years.
– Various companies have used different methods and all the bad foresee the results. It’s a huge discrepancy, and at this stage it is too early to predict where it came from. We are shocked – said Ford.
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Not only British problem?
– not just in Britain, but all over the world seem surveys over time become increasingly less accurate. It is increasingly difficult to find a representative sample of the population – commented the American expert on public opinion research Nate Silver.
However, one of the directors of Survation told Reuters that just before the election results had probes that were close to Thursday’s outcome. However, he added that “chickened out” and never published, because so much different from the consensus of researchers that suggested that they were wrong.
It is possible that voters are undecided at the last minute chose the Tories – suggested Ford .
Author: fil / I / Source: Reuters
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