Pre-election polls suggest that in the UK running out of time and one-party governments after Thursday’s vote to be expected negotiations on forming a coalition in London. It remains unknown who will undertake this mission.
During the campaign, the leaders of the two main parties, the Conservative Party and the Labour Party, stressed that they want to govern alone, thereby realizing the promises made to voters. However, surveys show that the shape of the new cabinet will determine the results achieved by smaller groups. With published a few days before the election, polls show that the Tories have roughly the same level of support as their main opponents of the Labor Party.
– The British arrived fact that this is the end of a two-party political system that prevailed in country for many decades – says a social anthropologist from the University of Roehampton Michael Garapich. – Like the previous elections were a novelty that led to the creation of the Tory coalition with the Liberal Democrats, which was considered at the beginning as something almost pathological, it is now understood that it would be something normal, a reality for a long time – rated Garapich.
Observers of political life in Britain point out that a large part in forming a new government can play a Scottish National Party (SNP), which has become increasingly popular and proclaims the radical password. This grouping is indicated as a potential coalition partner Labour.
– SNP on the wave of losing a referendum on Scottish independence has gained popularity and it turns out that it will be the dominating force in Scotland at the expense of the Labour Party. This makes the possibility of coalition begin to multiply and this is the main theme of the election campaign. Changes in attitudes to politics, which unaoczniają cracks in the British country – some lines of division concerning regional disparities translate into some social problems – said Garapich.
With the latest polls newspaper “The Guardian” that Labour will gain in the new parliament 270 seats, and the SNP 54 which gives them 324 voices and the ability to form a government; to have a secure majority need at least 326 votes. However, British media point out that in the case where no party secure a majority, to govern enough 322 votes. At current levels of support, the alliance of the Conservative Party and the Liberal Democrats could only count on 301 seats in parliament, which does not give them the majority and forced to seek such support. Among deputies from the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) and representatives of the Unionists of Northern Ireland – the Party Democratic Unionist (DUP).
In the pre-election analysis of the newspaper “Daily Telegraph” points out that in order to be able to govern again, a moiety Prime Minister David Cameron on Thursday would have to get at least seven percentage points ahead of laburzystami. Official stresses that the current political situation is more favorable for groups of Ed Miliband, who has more room for maneuver. According to the “Daily Telegraph” can count on the support of at least four Unionists of Northern Ireland, as well as on the votes of the SNP and the Green Party of England and Wales (GPEW). The Labour Party may also try to create a minority government in case of gaining 270 seats in parliament.
In contrast, Cameron’s group to think about the creation of the next government should get at least 290 seats and count on the positive conclusion of negotiations with the Liberal Democrats and their good election result. On the weekend before the election standing on their head Nick Clegg said he is interested relaunch the rule of the Tories, because they make the United Kingdom has avoided serious economic crisis.
Elections in the UK will be in the chair. 7 morning local time on Thursday. Entitled to vote is 48 million citizens of this country. Analysts and the media point out that these may be the most balanced and unpredictable election in years.
PAP
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