Will there be peace in Ukraine and in the Donbas people stop dying? The agreement signed in Minsk has every chance to bring peace – maybe not today, but soon. If it is completed. Is the format of Normandy, the presence of the leaders of Germany, France, Russia and Ukraine gives more hope that it will be respected?
The document was signed in Minsk, negotiated over many hours and often tragic circumstances, appears to contain a number of important agreements. Firstly, it will be a cease-fire and armistice. Not immediately, until the night from Saturday to Sunday at zero. It’s still a long two days, yet can pour blood.
Now, it turns out, who would want to even snatch a piece of land, to manifest strength, show that has the last word. Perhaps ceasefire within 48 hours has to decide the case on the boiler Debaltseve fight where the lap included several thousand Ukrainian soldiers. If you take over Debalcwe separatists, an important railway junction and road transport, will benefit the shortest way to Lugansk. The loss of this node would be fatal to Kiev. Is to reach Debaltseve call for halting the bloodshed and an end to the fighting, which sailed from Minsk? This will be the first test to the agreement.
The agreement involves the withdrawal of heavy artillery from fighting in the east of Ukraine. This is the weapon sowed death and destruction, especially among civilians. A similar requirement contained prior arrangements Minsk – those of September last year. It was never realized. More: heaviest weapons flowed into the Donbas just in recent months. Is it time to succeed?
It may be worth noting that the other is the rank of the current arrangements. Previous signed for incomparably lower level – just contact groups and the OSCE. Endorses the current presidents Poroshenko and Putin and German Chancellor and French President. From the previous composition of the only remaining leaders of the breakaway republics. But they did not have the real power. It seems that especially the signature of the President of Russia may be significant here. This applies to the whole act of understanding. Because in addition to the withdrawal of heavy weapons is a sensitive matter in it – take control of the border of Ukraine and Russia. As is clear from the text of the arrangements, border control take over Ukraine, and that’s the end of the year. If you can realize this point, if the word is fulfilled, it may be one of the most important findings of the entire agreement.
The lack of control on the border started this war. Moscow gave the advantage and allowed virtually everything: to enter the army, heavy weapons, to provide comprehensive support for the separatist army. Without control of the border can not speak or the sovereignty of the country, or of control over its territory. If Ukraine really regains control of the border, it appears that it will be easier to take back control of the Donbas. The information from Minsk are not so optimistic in this regard, although the leaders of the separatist signed an agreement, but are of the opinion that the details are yet to be agreed. Details may be so, but it seems to border control essential part!
Finally there is the issue of autonomy and federalization of Donbass, which would greatly President Putin. Today it looks like that will remain part of the Ukrainian Donbas, probably will get more power to local authorities, but the question of autonomy or the federalization of the agreement no. It looks good president Poroshenko winner may feel on this issue.
In Minsk, moreover, also signed another document on respect for the integrity of the Ukrainian lands and sovereignty of the country. Perhaps this is an additional security for the whole agreement? (Though you may wonder whether such a document was not at all necessary. Ukraine is an independent state, a member of the United Nations. Is there some hidden trap, even waiver of the right to the Crimea, which Putin is considered as belonging to Russia already irrevocably?). By the way, it may be better not to talk about winners and losers, because in Minsk had to come to a compromise on all sides. It seems, however, that Kiev will retain control of the Donbas.
Another unfilled point of previous agreements is now looking forward to implementation: the release of all prisoners. It is important for Ukraine, especially for the image Poroshenko. The president has repeatedly promised to release the Ukrainian prisoners, but to no avail. In the Russian prison stays also still aviator Nadia Savchenko. Now – summon up the words of Poroshenko – as she has to go free and return to the country.
Angela Merkel, which must be regarded as the main architect meetings and documents signed today, at the conclusion of the talks stressed that there is still much work left to an agreement to fulfill the task and – most importantly – the Donbass returned to the room.
That’s true, too much suffering, blood, death and destruction remains between Kiev and Donetsk. Everyone – and Ukrainians from Kiev, and donieccy – will each have to answer the question now, they want Ukraine. In which country they want to live, with which they identify. They will also have to accept the way of reform. Hard, because without great sacrifices there’s no way. But Ukraine economically weak, collapsing, nieradząca deal with economic problems – there is no chance of success.
Will the new agreement will guarantee Ukraine Minsk room? – Politics
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