Hope Dies Last – says Roman Jakowlewski, a political scientist, an independent Belarusian political commentator, asked by portal PolskieRadio.pl about the possibility of change in Belarus. He notes that recently the relations between the West and pro-European democratic opposition shadow casts a pragmatic attitude of politicians to the regime of Alexander Lukashenko. Political scientist warns that the official Minsk is fully dependent on Moscow, including in the military. Therefore, in his opinion, you can expect a response from the Union State of Russia and Belarus in connection with the activities of NATO. Political analyst also notes that the relationship Belarusian-Ukrainian gradually become cooler, so far there is no in Minsk ambassador to Kiev.
The observer Political Affairs warns that, to the relations with Belarus have not changed in cooperation with authoritarian leader. Recalls that after the Second World War also did not believe that the communist system could suddenly collapse. Meanwhile it happened. – If someone says that Belarusians are not ready for democracy, I ask, or 200 years ago, Americans were ready for it? And Belarusians are not? This is the wrong question, and an insult to the nation – says political scientist. Roman Jakowlewski told also, what events can be expected in the coming weeks this summer in Belarus.
We encourage you to read the interview:
PolskieRadio.pl : During a recent visit to Minsk, the Belarusian Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei said that Russia and Belarus will work together to answer NATO. What can be the meaning of such a declaration?
Roman Jakolewski independent Belarusian political analyst: The meaning is very simple and profound at the same time. I estimate that no so-called. “Independent policy” official Minsk, in fact, no. I stress that I mean here is not about Belarus in general, and about the authorities, Alexander Lukashenko. There is a sort of concordat between the two ministries of foreign affairs, as well as in general the two countries, which implies coordination of policies . it also relates to actions in respect of NATO.
the Ministers recalled and the so-called. the Union State of Russia and Belarus. stresses that the outer extremities of the solution – it’s borders Belarus and Polish. When the Minister of foreign Affairs Vladimir Makei said that both countries will agree a common approach, I think, that the notorious subject of the Russian airbase in Belarus can smoothly and quickly enough to transform the matter missile base. and why agrees to the head of the Foreign Ministry? the point is that their actions will explain in organizations international, eg. in the OSCE.
as for relations with NATO – will be so: when Poland arrive to the base of NATO and the US, Belarus can promote, or simply do not disturb the appearance of the Russian rocket-carrier , I do not exclude that, and nuclear. Maybe I will come to them an invitation to the Minsk?
It should be added that from the point of view of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s international security system does not exist – it it still violates the annexation of the Crimea. As for Belarus – Alexander Lukashenko and his minister Makei may discuss the will to “separate” the position of Minsk, the independent attitude … But it does not exist. Policy is fully coordinated with the Kremlin, today, very aggressive. A foreign ministers of Russia and Belarus, without a doubt, not their songs they sing, but their bosses.
It is worth noting that recently such contacts take place not only between the heads of foreign ministries of both countries. In Moscow, he was the secretary of the Security Council of the Republic of Belarus, General Stanislaw And. He consulted. There were also discussions between the ministries of defense. It’s just a single views of the joint Russian-Belarusian life.
Is too tight cooperation with Russia would become too dangerous for Lukashenka? Is not the new Russian base would turn against him? He wondered probably over what happened in the Donbas, which operation conducted there Russia.
It’s about the Kremlin’s fifth “column” in Belarus. It is true we do not know what in the head Vladimir Putin’s. After all, who foresaw what he would do with the Crimea, from the Donbas. I would not rule therefore quite such a threat. There rozpatrywałbym but rather such donbaskiego scenario as realistic.
You can see that now in Belarus noticeably revived the the so-called. Belarusian Cossacks (pro-Russian, ed.). but I have the impression that Moscow uses psychological pressure. this is to persuade Lukashenka not to so strongly with her argue.
Recall that in Belarus give notorious Russian state media, many of them watching and many citizens, which is not a secret, supported the annexation of the Crimea. This is the result of the influence of propaganda.
In the West there are such here are the views of commentators that Alexander Lukashenko , whereas events in Donbas, does not want so tightly cooperate with Russia, because it’s for him is dangerous.
Yes, there are such opinions. However, such views often represent people who simply its relations with Alexander Lukashenko, based on the base business. It also concerns the so-called. Experts from across the ocean. You can hear that Foreign Minister Makey and others like them depict such an image in private conversations, and they then present it as objective truth. In fact – it is not.
Being Alexander Lukashenko can not change. This is repeated many times. I also heard recently that the important officials, and in particular the Minister of Defence (Andrej Raukou) say that in Kiev was a “state coup” coup. I asked, therefore, on the occasion, party, Belarusian generals what the new songs, and Ukraine was not presidential, parliamentary, recognized by the OSCE. They said that there is a “junta”.
What’s “junta”? Just look at the celebration in Belarus on July 3 (established by Alexander Lukashenko Independence Day, commemorating the anniversary of the liberation of the area of Belarus by the Red Army, red ..) Please note, if the stands will be people in military uniforms, including Lukashenko. and it is worth comparing how many military on such occasions will be in the stands in Kiev? Ot and the whole answer to the question, where is the junta … rather in Minsk.
in Belarus racing eg. those who take part in the war in the east of Ukraine. You can see, however, that much more touching is the Belarusian volunteers who fight the Ukrainian side. this is just one example.
at the same time, I would like to emphasize the relationship Lukashenka Kiev change – become cooler. Note to now there is no Ukrainian ambassador in Minsk.
that’s right.
he was a Roman Bezsmertnyj, then Mikhail Jezel – who was in Minsk, because waiting for him now the prosecutor’s office in Kiev. Relationships are becoming cooler, which is Ukraine closer to NATO and the EU, the more will be strengthened border with Belarus. Getting harder Belarusians will go to Ukraine.
Is it possible there are changes in Belarus, and in what conditions? Change of power?
I will answer the words of the hero of one of the movies: “When gather 9 women, they would not manage to give birth in a month.” The process needs to mature. When it will be – it is difficult for interpretation.
Gani the Belarusian democratic opposition that is weak. However, the regime is very strong, and the strong regime can not be a strong opposition.
Today, I see that force may not so much opposition, but disagreement with the policy of Alexander Lukashenko, ripen in the regime, in the nomenclature.
the people in the nomenclature do not agree with the current policy, because they are more pro-European? Or on the contrary, the pro-Russian?
The more I mean first attitude. Changes to the prospect of a long, hope is remote. However, the more the Belarusian officers will receive diplomas western military schools, the better. I think so.
Are you associated hope with the Belarusian National Congress, now attempt to unite the opposition?
I am with him in solidarity, but also look at it realistic. I approach him with sympathy – to its creators, Mikola Statkevich, Uladzimir Nyaklyaeu … I’ve known them for years.
Are pro-European democratic opposition is now discussion partner for the European Union?
It all depends on what the opposition. She is not homogeneous. There is now mass “false” ngo, different pseudoekspertów. There has been a very complex process, its characteristic is that it tries all this affect and push Russia.
It may lack a platform for the West’s relations with the democratic opposition?
West unfortunately przeformatował its relations with the democratic opposition, more toward pragmatism in relation to the regime. I call this pragmatism otherwise – that cynicism. If someone says that Belarusians are not ready for democracy, I ask, or 200 years ago, Americans were ready for it? And Belarusians are not? This is the wrong question, and an insult to the nation.
Well, this is a process. In Poland, there were other circumstances. However, not much anyone believed that the system will collapse. A he collapsed. And everywhere there are its own peculiarities – and Belarus, after all.
Pan hopes that Belarus will be pro-European, free country?
The main thing – do not confuse hope with illusions. And hope dies last.
For what it is worth paying attention to in the near future?
Approaching hot time and not just for the summer high temperatures. In Poland will exercise the Alliance. So it probably will answer the other. On the other hand, on June 22 in Belarus will be called. wszechbiałoruski damping of. It is the anniversary of the German attack on the Soviet Union. I think that Alexander Lukashenko on this occasion there is the speech “heart-wrenching” … How he can do that. The question also, who will represent Belarus at the Warsaw summit of NATO? The invitation is already, but it is personal .. So – wait and see .
and in August in Minsk will be open mosque Katedralny- perhaps even Turkish president arrives?
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From the Roman Jakowlewskim talked Agnieszka Kaminska, PolskieRadio.pl
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Video: PAP. the danger for Europe is resurgent, revisionist and rewanżystowska Russia, which may want to change the boundaries not only in Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, but perhaps also in the Baltic States, Belarus and around Kaliningrad – says the expert of the Center for European Policy Analysis Janusz Bugajski.
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