Brexit is risky not only for the UK Photo: PAP / EPA / LAURENT Dubrule
the output of the UK from the European Union “can have serious economic repercussions” – warns Janet Yellen head of the Central Bank of the United States. in Britain today lives and works almost 850 thousand. Poles. the effects Brexitu will reflect not only to the native inhabitants of the Isles, but also for all immigrants staying there. Brexit means tightening migration laws, including access to benefits.
for Poles are important benefits
Reducing social benefits for immigrants from the European Union discouraged to go abroad, every fifth potential, a Polish immigrant – that according to the latest Work Service.
this shows the importance of social protection for Poles planning to go to the UK – explains Andrzej Kubisiak of Work Service.
– We can see that social aspects are important for Polish emigrants. And changes in social policy can cause even a fifth of potential immigrant will be in Poland and will not leave until the EU. And this indicates that the changes that await us in the UK can be crucial from the point of view Polish labor market – he says.
Poles considering emigration draw attention to the issues of the potential benefits – confirms Carolina Korzeniewska, an expert on labor market Antal International.
– As the decisive factor for leaving is essential for 30 percent. women and approx. 20 percent. male respondents. This is natural, because we are moving whole families – he says.
And he adds: – 90 percent. of respondents declare that they will not come back to the country, no matter what will be the decision of the UK. The issue of benefits is very important for people who are planning to leave and are at the stage of selection of the country to which they would go – he says.
Interest in the UK is falling
Brexit reduce emigration from Polish. But it turns out that now more and more Poles, as the country indicates a possible emigration Germany, and interest in the UK falls.
– Germany zdetronizowały UK and today we see that this is the main goal of economic migrations of Poles. It is associated with the change of the model of emigration, which can be observed in Poland. When we ask today Poles, or go abroad, to reply that it no longer trips long-term and permanent, but indicating eg. The direction of the German say they will leave for three or four months – says Andrzej Kubisiak of Work Service.
can return visa
Brexit Poles can restrict access to the labor market in the UK, especially for those who only plan to go – adds Karolina Korzeniewska of Antal International.
– We do not know how it will look in the context of people who are already there. But if someone is planning a foreign trip for a long time for a profit, it must reckon with the fact that after leaving the UK from the EU will have to obtain a specific visa. This is a problem which concerns only the rank and file workers performing simple physical work that do not require higher qualifications.
Those that are missing on the British labor market should have no difficulty in obtaining a permit for employment.
The British pay attention to the immigration
About the possible consequences Brexitu also says the latest report of mBank.
– The main arguments in favor of leaving the Union do not have an economic nature. The most important issue to highlight is the British and immigration regulations, which are in the opinion of those who want to leave the EU, imposed by Brussels. This of course would restrict economic freedom, hamper business development. There are a number of arguments that did not really touch the heart of the problem, and it seems that the British are a little misled the campaign for leaving the EU.
United Kingdom have benefited from tax
Britain is one of the largest net contributors to the EU budget.
– They are certainly one of the biggest contributors to the European budget, but a lot of relief managed to get the UK. I’ve all shared so much money put into them. Currently, the contribution of net approx. 5 billion pounds a year. It also would not be a big problem to be absorbed by other countries if Britain would decide to go out and not necessarily the center of the EU would have to be Polish to diminish. So it seems that the argument is a little overrated – says Kamil Maliszewski of Brokerage mBank.
Great unknown
The basic argument in favor of the United Kingdom staying in the EU the current stability, which may be lacking when it comes to Brexitu.
– This domino effect that could then arise – says Kamil Maliszewski.
Probably the United Kingdom could probably count on relief of 10-15 percent. in relation to what we now put to a common cash, but would have to meet certain conditions: would be guaranteed the free movement of workers – and this seems to be a very big problem.
– Skoczylibyśmy in a space that is unrecognized. And this would have very many threats to the UK economy, above all when it comes to investments. This is the Achilles’ heel of the UK economy in recent years. The Bank of England also notes that because of this productivity grows rather slowly. And if the WB have found outside the EU, these investments would be even less – says the guy Ones.
And the fastest growing sector of the economy in recent years, namely financial services, would want to move, for example. To Paris or Frankfurt.
– Starts for the UK economy in the first years would be certainly very serious – says Kamil Maliszewski.
economic freedom is still very high
And now the British economy is growing faster than the average Euroland economy. Also, the unemployment rate is almost twice lower than in the EU.
According to Kamila Maliszewski worth comparing the economy WB to most developed countries, and not to the entire EU.
– If we look at indicators such. those relating to economic freedom, in the UK, despite allegedly imposed by Brussels regulation, they look very good. And WB is an EU leader when it comes to freedom of entrepreneurs – says a representative of mBank.
Other EU countries also warn
Germany clearly suggest that the eventual exit Union negotiating position WB will be limited, also a representative of the Spanish government has warned that Britain may lose their privileges in this country, eg. to free medical treatment and health care.
the British government indicates in the information that 3 million. jobs is associated with an expert to the EU.
– If you fail to bilateral bilateral agreements conclude, the decline in exports can be very drastic – says Kamil Maliszewski.
And the drop of GDP and the British can become poorer. Also, they move around the EU will also be significantly impeded, as well as access to the property.
On the other hand, you can expect the collapse of property prices in the UK.
Robert Lidke game
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