Wednesday, June 22, 2016

Brexit. Everything you need to know about him – Gazeta Wyborcza

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Tomasz Bielecki Maciej Czarnecki

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
           
           
             


             

                  
             Pro-European  also activated & # x15B; you expand & #  x119; you banner on London's & # x144; State  can & # x15B, of Southwark on the Thames.  June 15 flow & # x142; yne & # x142; and  under it flotilla brexitowc & # XF3; in
                  
 
                  
                 
                    

Pro-European activists have developed a banner at London's Southwark Bridge on the Thames. June 15 passed underneath the flotilla brexitowców (BEN STANSALL)

                  
                  
                  


                  
             

             
         
     
   
   
   
 
 
 
 
BATTLE OF BREXIT. Why is the British vote? Who is for and who is against? What might be the consequences? We answer the most important questions for a British referendum.

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
                          
 

                 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
         


Article opened within the limits of free digital subscriptions

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Battle of Brexit

1. What is the referendum question?

"Is the UK should remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?". At question are two different grids to place the answer: Stay; Out.

2. Who can vote?

Citizens of the United Kingdom, Ireland and Commonwealth countries over the age of 18 living in the UK and Britons living abroad for less than 15 years. Poles living in the UK have no voting rights, unless they got British citizenship.

3. How much will take a vote and when we will know the results?

Polling stations will be open from 7 to 22 British time (8 to 23 in Poland). After their closure will start counting. In the next hours will flow results from individual districts. Eg. Sunderland has given them half an hour after midnight, Waveney until about 7 am (British time). Realistically, unofficial and not entirely accurate outcome of the referendum, we know the morning of Thursday to Friday.

4. Why this referendum?

He promised them the British in January 2013. Prime Minister David Cameron under pressure from eurosceptics from his own party and UKIP - United Kingdom Independence Party. He announced that he wanted to reform the European Union and the fight for better conditions for London, and then to ask voters whether they want to remain in.

5. What Cameron won in the negotiations with the EU?

The main concession to London to limit benefits for EU workers in the UK (mostly Poles). The British period 2017-24 will be applied to newly arrived workers to a four-year grace period for payment of "in-work benefits" or benefits less earnings. And the amount of benefits for children who live eg. With his grandparents in Poland, can be adjusted to the level of life in Poland (with the new rules may take some other EU countries).

London received official confirmation that the record the preamble to the Treaty on the EU "to continue the process of creating an ever closer union (ever closer union) between the peoples of Europe" does not mean the British obligation to strengthen European integration. The EU has agreed on a system of "red card" - when 55 per cent. national parliaments in the EU considers a new draft law as contrary to the principle of subsidiarity (included in cases in which EU countries would cope without Brussels), this will go into the trash.

6. What the polls say?

Supporters and opponents Brexitu go head to head. The "survey of surveys" or average of the last six tests, first to 49 per cent., Some 51 per cent. However, the published survey Opinium gives 1 percent. brexitowcom advantage. Commentators can not predict what the result will end up voting. Bookmakers believe rather remain in the UK in the EU (1.25 to 1.33 for each posed pound) than output (3.4 to 3.8).

7. What issues dominated the campaign and what will determine the outcome?

The two major themes of the campaign were the economy and immigration.

The camp pro-European accented warning many experts - from the British Treasury on the International Monetary Fund - that Brexit would be more or less a disaster and would mean a decline of the pound, the panic in the stock market, downgrading the United Kingdom, the increase in unemployment ... after leaving the Union of UK GDP per farm Appliances may be lower than 2.1 to 3.7 thousand. pounds, and unemployment - about 2 to 3 percent. higher (compared to the forecast, will remain in the EU, not the current state) - warned a recent report from PwC.

Eurosceptic camp tried to talk about immigration. Many Britons believe that is too large. At the end of May, the national statistics office announced data, which show that in 2015. Islands came to 330 thousand. people more than the left (the difference for immigrants from the EU amounts to 184 thousand.). At one time, Cameron promised that the balance will be counted in the tens of thousands. Brexitowcy argue that the only way to decrease immigration is out of the Union.

The result of the referendum depends largely on which arguments will take into account voters. Important is the question of sovereignty: Europe's opponents argue that it imposes British law is too bureaucratic and ineffective. In their opinion, the United Kingdom - the fifth economy in the world - great cope alone. Defenders of Europe are responsible, that just being in the European Union, the British will have more influence.

On the day of the referendum should follow the turnout: the lower, the better for supporters Brexitu.

8. Who wants to go, and who wants to be?

Young people are a bit more prounijni, older - eurosceptic. Brexit supports UKIP and nearly half of the members of conservatives, including five members of the Cameron government, which left them a free hand, and the group of the opposition Labour Party. Most members of the Party of Party work, however, is for the Union, as well as the Scottish National Party, the Greens and the Liberal Democrats. The first violin in the camp of Eurosceptics play Justice Minister Michael Gove, b. London Mayor Boris Johnson and the leader of UKIP Nigel Farage, the camp prounijnym - David Cameron and Chancellor George Osborne.

9. What do business?

Large companies operating in the UK generally afraid Brexitu: banks supported by six supporters of Union grants, and industrialists threaten reduction of investment. 80 percent. interviewed members of the Confederation of British Industry declared that he would remain in the European Union would be better for them. Staying in the EU supported, among others, bosses listed on the London Stock Exchange companies: BP, Credit Suisse, BT, Vodafone, HSBC, Airbus or Ryanair.

Small entrepreneurs, however, are divided. TNS survey among the heads of more than 500 small and medium-sized companies showed that they were divided almost evenly: 38 percent. would like to remain in the EU, 37 percent. - Leave it (the rest are undecided).

10. How Britain will leave the EU?

The referendum - from a purely formal point of view - does not alter the relations of London with the EU. Only an official letter from the British Government to the European Council of its intention to exit from the EU would start the Article 50 of the EU Treaty. For his power negotiations of the Treaty of Brexicie, on behalf of the EU lead the European Commission, they can take up to two years. The extension of this period, which is unlikely, it requires unanimous consent of the rest of the EU. The Treaty of leaving the UK. Britain on behalf of the EU would include the EU Council (of ministers from the Union) by qualified majority and with the consent EuropeanParliament. Two years is not enough for a comprehensive definition of new relations London - Union, which probably would be negotiated - after Brexicie - in another contract or contracts. The approval of some of them require the unanimous consent of the countries of the Union. It may take another 5-8 years.

Some advocates of Brexitu scheming how to circumvent the above scenario. Even suggest several years of delay in notification Brexitu under Article 50. This would allow for many informal exhibition on the conditions for exit from the EU and the main countries of the EU - and not less skin to dilute EU principles - the European Commission.

11. What does Brexit for Europe?

Carl Bildt, former Prime Minister and b. Foreign Minister of Sweden, warns that Brexit will be for Europe event most fraught with consequences of the demolition of the Berlin wall. Of course, the direction of difficult to accurately forecasting the events would be opposed to the full pro-European enthusiasm decision after the fall of the Iron Curtain.

To Win Brexitu would add strength eurosceptics and opponents of the EU in other EU countries, including Netherlands. It is possible that blackmailing referenda on leaving the EU would start even louder to request exemptions from the common EU rules. And one of the most unpopular is the freedom of movement, namely the right to, among others, Poles to settle and work in the West. London is one of the main contributors to the EU budget, so Brexit is also a risk of a reduction of EU funds, including for Polish - but rather after 2020.

The EU, and particularly the euro area, needs deeper integration, but growing in strength populists now so nastraszyli mainstream politicians that linger reforms. There is a risk that the triumph of the anti-EU forces in the UK will enhance the effect. However, if the Union is to shake off and not give up closer integration, it will be done mainly in the euro zone. And it threatens suppression countries "second speed" outside the euro area (including Polish) on the periphery of the EU decision-making. Economically liberal UK. Kingdom this for years the main support for Germany in the resistance against the protectionist tendencies of "Latin" part of the EU (France and Italy). Brexit disrupt this balance, which may result in limiting the free market.

Brexit reduce the potential for the EU as a trading bloc, and thus reduce its bargaining power, eg. In relations with China. The basis of European security is NATO, of which the British did not come out, but Brexit weaken the geopolitical position of the EU. Europe divided, embroiled in a dispute is considered to be among by the Kremlin for more convenient, because it easier to playing partner.

12. What will be the consequences Brexitu for the Poles?

Brexitowcy promised that immigrants from the EU, who are already living in the UK will retain the current law. For those who want to come in the future will most likely be subject to points system along the lines of Australia: you can work with us, but only if you're young, you have a job and education, and, you know English.

After Brexicie probably rise tuition fees in the UK. Today EU citizens are paying as much as the British. After leaving the Union London would treat them as students from outside Europe.

we invite you to follow our service BATTLE OF BREXIT

Referendum 23 June

Proponents Brexitu believe that the second on the German economy Europe can handle herself well, and the British Isles free themselves from Europe's problems - from refugee crisis to terrorism and the specter of a Greek default. Supporters of Europe on the contrary - only the EU will sustain economic growth, security and the importance of the UK.

The selection is valid for the whole of Europe, without which the UK very weakened. London is the capital of finance, the European leader in the fight against terrorism, an important member of NATO. As well as a home for hundreds of thousands of Poles. Think tank Chatham House warns that Brexit begin disintegration of Europe and will encourage Russia to interfere in the affairs of the continent.

What you want to read, what do you think about the referendum? We are also waiting for e-mails from Poles Islands: bitwaobrexit@agora.pl.

We encourage you to follow our relationship on Twitter (hashtag #bitwaobrexit).

         


         


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