• Iraq plunged into political chaos, which threatens the campaign against ISIS
• People have had enough of corruption, incompetence of the authorities and a wave of terror
• The situation is exacerbated rivalry dominant forces in Iraq and Shiite groups
• Massive rebellion directs the influential Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr
• He has called the Mehdi Army, of which more than a decade ago fought Polish troops in Iraq
• The key to solve the Iraqi crisis, is in neighboring Iran, whose influence are critical in Baghdad
Original Sin
The essential causes of the current Iraqi crisis must be sought, among others, in the shape of the political system and the body of the country, built after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in 2003. and based on criteria of ethnic and religious groups. Today we can already see clearly that this system – called learning confessionalism (similar existed for decades in Lebanon, and it is not working properly) – completely does not work in Iraq, whose population is made up of three strong, clearly from each distinct in the sense of ideological, cultural , religious and political community – the Arab Shiites and Sunnis and Kurds.
The division positions of the state and state power by key religious and ethnic no chance to act correctly in the conditions of a deep crisis of confidence between the different communities, wzmaganego ongoing war with the Caliphate and the massive terror campaign by Islamists, mainly directed against the Shiites and Kurds.
Without a doubt, the greatest importance for the explosion and the current crisis in Iraq is also growing opposition and broader layers of the population – and this regardless to which communities belong – to infesting their size and scale of corruption and nepotism of the Iraqi elite political, military and social. About how great are the dimensions of these phenomena and how they adversely affect the functioning of the state and the lives of its citizens, they provide their effects. Clearly showed that even if the events of 2014 when several thousand troops militant Islamic State in a few days they were able to overcome a population of nearly 100 thousand. Iraqi soldiers and police security forces in the northern and western provinces, eventually occupying more than one-third of the territory of the country, the second largest city of Iraq – Mosul. The army and security formations, poorly managed and underfunded, simply did not want to fight and fled from the battlefield. As a first they deserted anyway officers and local politicians and officials, and representatives of the profession so common today accused of being involved in corrupt practices.
An important element in explaining the causes of today’s social turmoil in Iraq is also a dominance in Iraqi political forces and Shiite groups. In itself, this is very understandable, after all, the Shiites are the overwhelming majority (approx. 70 percent). Iraqi society. This does not mean, however, that their political representatives is a monolith. On the contrary: with the passage of time rivalry between the various groups and parties Shiite increases, and recent events in Baghdad are the best proof.
Traffic Sadr
The political crisis in Iraq, the latest accords have become a march on parliament and getting closed every day the government district in the capital, he began as a matter already in the middle of last year. That’s when the streets of the Iraqi capital, the first large demonstrations, convened under the banner of the fight against corruption, incompetent officials and government and demands the improvement of the security situation in the country, rapidly deteriorating as a result of terror IS and increasing debauchery militia party, moreover, almost without exception Shiite.
These manifestations, initially spontaneous and without a clear party patronage, soon they were politically “developed” by the Sadr Movement (As-Sadryi’un), led by the charismatic cleric Sajida Muqtada al-Sadr, derived from a respected and greatly deserved for Shiite family. This young (42 years) for Iraqi standards policies gained its popularity among the poor Shiite masses more than 10 years ago when, as a social leader and the only recognizable figure of the Iraqi political scene strongly opposed the “US occupation”.
About how much his position and call for decisive military action ( “rising Sadr”) are respected in Iraq south of Baghdad (and in the capital itself in the heart of the Shiite poor – notorious Sadr City), on its own the skin is also convinced and Polish soldiers serving at the PKW Iraq. The famous defense of the town hall in Karbala in 2004, is the most today, thanks to the film production known and luckily for our soldiers successfully completed an attempt to maintain its position against attacks by crowds of angry, fanatical Shiite fighters from the Mahdi Army, which police sformowanej by Muqtada al-Sadr to fight the US and its allies. Today, a decade later, many of the contemporary fighters became commanders and trainers for thousands of young Shiites, who joined the ranks of the Shiite majority in the structure of the paramilitary Haszd Al-Ash-Sza’abi, namely the People’s Mobilization Forces – formations established in summer 2014 years for the defense of Iraq, in practice, the Shiite parts before you Islamic.
Socio-political and religious position, which a decade ago gained Muqtada al-Sadr, paying off today in the decisive moment for the future of Iraq. The symbol of his strong influence and importance among the Shiites is symptomatic of the event at the end of March. Then Muqtada personally joined the masses of demonstrators protesting in Baghdad, who founded around the “green zone,” a kind of Kiev Maidan. When Sadr pitched his modest tent next to hundreds of other similar shelters at the gates to the “forbidden city” came to him a delegation of soldiers from an elite brigade guarding government district, with its commander, Gen. Mohammad Reza (though a native Iranian) at the helm. These people gave servile tribute Muktadzie, declaring him their full loyalty.
No wonder that when more than a month later, in early May, thousands of demonstrators started to sign Sadr on the “green zone”, troops guarding the government quarter showed a far-reaching reticence and passivity. To the extent that the parliament is not suitable for use today. Fatal impression which led to the shocking events will not change the longer the recent decision of Prime Minister Abadiego dismissal of both gene. Reza, and several other high-ranking officers of the security branches, nominally guarded “Green Zone.”
In the light of such events only a few dare to cast doubt on the honesty and sincerity of purpose Sadrystów in their current gameplay with other parties Shiite – after group Sadr is still part of the current coalition government, with the office Abadiego three ministers ( trade, construction, and for. local communities), lesser-ranking officials and officials not counting. They sadryści consistently, however, correspond to such allegations that the share of power is not for them a value in itself and at any time they are ready to give up the co-governing. And no wonder, because the political game, which for several months leading Muqtada al-Sadr, is calculated to achieve a much more far-reaching goals. Sadr’s intention is in fact significantly increase the participation of his party in the government of Iraq, and it is possible that even play in this respect the key role.
The long tentacles of Tehran
Are young and still considered a radical policy Sadr could weigh on these intentions and goals, not having a particularly strong support from external centers, interested in the development of the situation in Iraq? Certainly not. It is safe to assume that Sadr has support in neighboring Iran, where he lived in 2008-2011, formally studying theology in the Shiite religious center of Qom, in fact – hiding from arrest warrant served notice by US forces. Still there often looks, just recently in early May.
The problem, however, is that similar support from Iran enjoy and other Shiite political groups active in Iraq today. The oldest of them – founded in 1958 Da`wa Party (Hizb ad-Da`wa al-Islamiyya, literally: The Call of Islam) – Iran enjoys the support of the sixth decade, and ruled Iraq for more than 10 years at that time designated the two Prime Ministers Nouriego al-Maliki (ruled incompetent for two terms) and is now incumbent Haider al-Abadiego (as incompetent, and this at odds with Maliki). Also other Shiite parties, including many equally “leciwych” – the Party of Virtue Islamic (Al-Fadhila), the Organization Badr (founded: 1982) and the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (established in 1980) – could always (can continue? ) count on help and assistance from Tehran.
So what makes it is the young Sadr has the particular confidence, boldness and momentum in their activities in Iraq against the power exercised by the old and recognized Shi’ite parties? At the time of his exile in Iran he managed to win the support and sympathy of the local key centers of power and influence of groups? The answers to these questions, of course, we do not know and probably soon, if at all, will not know. We can only assume that either the decision-makers in Tehran – disappointed and disgusted inefficient actions and behavior of their former Shiite protégés in Iraq, especially in the face of the threat from deadly for Shiite caliphate – decided to change his “team” in Baghdad or in the Iran there has been a dramatic rift and division within the framework of actions in support of the interests of Shia Islam outside the country. This is not entirely unrealistic, since Iran is currently torn biggest since the Islamic Revolution of 1979 internal contradictions, and political turmoil, disclosed even during the recent elections in the country, it must act indirectly on Iranian allies and vassals in the whole Middle East region.
How much it shows the current critical situation in Iraq has led so quickly this growing rivalry between the Shiite parties to obtain the broadest possible support from their natural electorate – and perhaps also from their existing sponsors from Iran. Shiite groups in the fierce struggle for influence and power are ready to use authentic anger of the masses and their social concern about the direction of development of the situation in the country, although themselves often contributed to the current disastrous situation as regards the functioning of state structures and governance mechanisms.
The rivalry between the political parties representing the interests of different backgrounds and interest groups stands Shiites but also a clear differentiation of them come to the spiritual and political patrons in Iran. That there are, in essence forces and resorts that pull the strings policy on the Iraqi political scene. And to be feared that the situation will deteriorate over time, and the activity of the Islamic Republic of Iran will put more and more shadow on the events taking place in Iraq and the lives of its citizens.
The title and intertitles come from the editors.
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