GBP: Theresa May and the Bank of England in the spotlight – Interia

What to expect when the new Prime Minister of the UK. Britain?

Political background

Let’s start with a brief history of the achievements of the future Prime Minister of the UK. Britain, partly to be able to discern what characteristics may be its rule. One of the positions in the British government, which Theresa May has been previously established, was the position of Minister of the Interior in 2010. He held this position May has allowed freer police action in the fight against crime while reducing wages and the elimination of police corruption in its ranks. It strengthened the borders of the United Kingdom, introducing restrictions on immigration. At the same time the duties of the Minister of the Interior, also performed minister. Women and Equality supporting the campaign for same-sex marriages.

The views of the future Prime Minister

Graphically Theresa May can be determined, therefore, as a liberal conservative, with a large element of socialist, which wybrzmiewało from her last speech, opening the race for the seat of prime minister. Exchanged often, he does not want to serve disadvantaged groups, but the entire public. She said also during his speech to fight against the injustices of society which passed poverty, inferior treatment of blacks by the judiciary, worse start in life people from the lower social strata like. This declaration may therefore be announced in more or less of caring government.

statements in connection with Brexitem

the most important, however, are statements Theresa May on Brexitu. Although she was one of the faces of the camp optującego for remaining UK. Britain in the EU, while the aforementioned speech, the future prime minister declared the full willingness to respect the verdict of the British, who have chosen to exit the UK. Britain from the European Union. Ruled out any attempt to carry out a second referendum or remain within the EU despite the will of the people.

May except clarified a whole series of equally urgent issues, communicating the elections: weekdays should not be carried out until 2020, should not be introduced budget rescue and first of all – the famous Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon should not be launched before the end of the year, until the precise definition of a coherent strategy for negotiating the UK. Britain and the European Union. The leader of the Conservatives also stressed that the priority in these negotiations will enable British businesses continue to trade within the single European market at the same time, greater control over the flow of people.

at the end of Theresa May has revealed that there It will force to strive for a budget surplus by the end of the parliamentary term, and if before 2020 will have the choice of reducing public expenditure, expanding sovereign debt or increasing taxes, it will be a priority for her to avoid increasing pressure on tax in order not to burden the economy .

reactions market

Choosing Theresa May, the new leader of the conservative party, as well as its upcoming sworn in as the new Prime Minister of the UK. Britain has a positive impact on the plus pound. British pound today steadily at 1.3250 dollar, the accelerated decision about Theresa May as the new Prime Minister of Great Britain.

Author: Jakub Jurczyński – junior analyst financial markets HFT Brokers

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Challenges for May, the chance for Polish

Theresa May has the reputation of a hard negotiator. Nevertheless, it represents the pragmatic approach and is aware that it will not have a free hand in negotiations with the European Union (EU). As prime minister, he must face two key challenges on the local political scene.

First, in his office, he would be maneuvered between the supporters to leave the UK and stay in the EU. May knows that the most competent British politicians belong to the camp of supporters remain within the EU, so it will have to take their opinion into consideration.

Otherwise, it will be soon forced to call an early election, which will increase political instability in the UK, and will have a negative impact on economic growth. Secondly, its position can be challenged in the event of committing any political mistakes. It has not been selected because neither by British nationals or by all members of the Conservative Party. He was appointed prime minister by the narrow circle of decision-makers in the party, and therefore will have to deal with the lack of full legitimacy.

Theresa May must also face two challenges in the negotiations with the EU. It is aware that they will last more than two years, despite the fact that the EU treaties indicate a shorter period of time. Issues such as immigration and financial services, will need more time to negotiate and reach a final agreement. Very likely that May will delay the launch of Article 50 as long as possible.

So will be under increasing pressure from other European countries. In addition, regardless of the final shape of the agreement with the EU, the economic benefits arising from it will be smaller than those arising from EU membership. This becomes a source of frustration among the British, who understand that they had been lied to by supporters Brexitu. successor David Cameron is so in an extremely difficult situation, no matter what happens in the coming weeks and months.

Brexit change the balance of power in the EU. Germany will be the only leader on the continent. Weakening Franco-German tandem, especially due to the fact that the French president has to deal with the challenges of the presidential campaign, which will begin in the spring of 2017. In the coming time, there will exist no force that could oppose the hegemony of Germany. So far, the UK is playing this role.

That is a historic opportunity for Polish, which has represented similar to the UK position on the issue of EU integration – decision makers in Warsaw have a chance to balance the position of Germany and France. Poland is in a good position to balance the strength of Germany as it enjoys the support of many countries in Central and Eastern Europe. Brexit a great political opportunity for the Polish to play a key role in shaping EU policy. It is hoped that this chance will not be wasted.

Christopher Dembik, Director. Macroeconomic analysis at Saxo Bank

The Bank of England will weaken the pound?

At today’s meeting of the Bank of England decides to loosen monetary policy, this gain can both gold and Polish bonds – rate economists.

– in the currency market we are now dealing with the consolidation in a rather narrow range. Surprise, perhaps, that optimism on global markets is not reflected in quotation Polish currency – said the PAP Matthew Sutowicz, an economist at Bank Millennium.

If the BoE decides to easing monetary policy, it is certainly pomorze whole basket of currencies of emerging and the EUR / PLN could break through the level of 4.40 – he said.

– Possible lack of action from the Bank of England will adversely impact on sentiment in global markets, but gold should not feel that to a large extent – he added.

– the Polish debt market situation is very stable and very little dzieje.analitycy waiting for Friday’s revision of the rating by Fitch – said the PAP Mateusz Milewski, dealer SPW mBank.

Pound may be harder to go up

Waiting to cut interest rates in the UK are very large. In a survey published Monday by Bloomberg as many as 30 of the 54 economists expected a cut of 25 p.b to the level of 025%. On the other hand, the market on the basis of futures assesses the probability of reduction of over 80%. The market expectations for rate cuts is very high, and the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney suggests that it is more probable that the August deadline. In addition, the pound sterling is heavily sold out, although I must admit that recent declines slightly recovered. Consequently, the lack of any decision by the set so the market can cause strong reflection of the British currency.

Bartosz Zawadzki

Head of Research

Admiral Markets AS, Branch in Poland