Yesterday Kiev, Moscow today, tomorrow Munich. The last days of this extraordinary step up diplomatic struggle to resolve the conflict in Ukraine. Leaks from the negotiations, however, tend not to be optimistic.
– The game takes place on a European peace – Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Thursday night after returning from Kiev, where, together with French President Francois Hollande and the President of Ukraine Petr Poroshenko talked about a possible end to the war in the Donbas. She said this at the same time on the eve of departure to Moscow, where on the same topic Franco-German tandem will talk with Vladimir Putin. The rate of these talks is high: the more that both parties indicate that their patience with diplomatic means to an end.
– These negotiations can not drag on forever – Hollande said Thursday.
- It may not be the last chance meeting, but this may not be far from the truth – confirmed on Friday the Russian ambassador in Paris, Konstantin Orlov.
The big question is: what is the “European peace” might mean. Early indications that it may not be beneficial for Ukraine. According to the newspaper “Le Figaro”, citing a source in the French diplomacy, the offer of Germany and France would give Putin exactly what is called “federalization” of Ukraine to resume its neutral status, ie. The promise that the road to NATO and EU for her close. In return, Hollande and Merkel to demand the withdrawal of Russian troops from the Donbass and the closure of the border. According to other reports, the game has also come as part of the UN forces in the monitoring room. This, however, raises concerns that such a scenario will be repeated as Transnistria, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, where the presence of Russian “peacekeepers” is the guarantor of the de facto independence of these unrecognized states, and at the same time destabilizing factor Moldova and Georgia.
It is doubtful, however, that the Ukrainian authorities have agreed to such an arrangement. As said the head of the MFA of Ukraine Dmytro Kuleba, during a meeting in Kiev, the discussion was not a new peace plan, but “a series of steps lead to the implementation of the” Plan signed in September 2014 in Minsk. Minsk assumed truce among withdrawal of Russian troops and a “special” (ie. a stand-alone), although the temporary status of territories occupied by the separatists.
If so leaks prove true, and indeed European tandem Putin made the proposal unacceptable to Kiev, efforts Hollande and Merkel would end up not peace, but a scandal.
“If the reports of plan Merkel and Hollande are true, it would mean a capitulation to Russia” – wrote on Twitter Marek Menkiszak, an expert of the Centre for Eastern Studies. Therefore, it seems more probable alternative.
– This is a return to the classic “shuttle diplomacy” in the style of Harold Nicolson and Henry Kissinger: first visit to Ukraine, where he studied what is the scope for concessions Kiev, and then on this basis is negotiating with Moscow – explained in an interview with Janusz Sibora WP, a historian and expert. diplomacy.
In his opinion, the meeting in Moscow did not end up the definitive agreement, because after all, and so would have to be approved by the Kyiv.
The occasion for this may prove to be another episode of the last days of diplomatic marathon, which started today, Munich Security Conference, an annual meeting of hundreds of experts, diplomats and decision makers, which will focus on what the conflict in Ukraine. The discussions in Munich, among others, have taken part Merkel, Poroshenko and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
Here, in turn, an obstacle to the conclusion of the contract can be … the place of those conversations. French-German-Russian agreement in Munich nasuwałoby obvious associations with other system contained in this town – including the 1938, when Western leaders in exchange for promises of peace agreed to the annexation of the Sudetenland to the Third Reich.
– The Germans are very sensitive to such associations. Though, of course, any agreement could be presented as something that negates this sad story – says Sibora.
The controversy also raises the same format of negotiations. The talks do not take because not only the participation United States – US Secretary of State John Kerry admitted that he does not know what it contains Merkel and Hollande’s plan – but there is not a European Union official representative. The head of the European Council, Donald Tusk was today – like Kerry, which met today – on the sidelines, and limited only to joint statements with the American diplomat.
According Sibory, no EU representative results from the attitude of Russian diplomacy, which sees no serious player in the European Union.
– You can see that Putin wants to talk to those whom it considers have a real impact – summarizes the expert.
Oskar Górzyński, Virtual Poland
See also: Merkel and Hollande will present Putin’s peace plan
Ws diplomatic offensive. Ukraine: New Munich or … – Virtual Poland
No comments:
Post a Comment