Permanent Russian maneuvers
Ukraine takes very seriously the actions taken by Russia in the Crimea – reinforcement of large-scale maneuvers – said Melnyk in an interview with Deutschlandfunk.
– the creation of a new front would have disastrous consequences for the whole of Europe – warned the diplomat.
He noted that Ukraine needs urgently weapons defensive in Germany, including radar systems to target artillery, and vehicles used to transport the wounded.
Melnyk assured that the Ukrainian service of guarding that weapon from eastern Ukraine from entering the western Europe, where it could fall in the hands of terrorists. Border guards seized since the beginning of this year, 600 pieces of weapons smuggled to the West. In the whole of last year we seized 900 pieces.
The Ambassador stressed that in eastern Ukraine there is a war, making it difficult to control. – In the east, there is a black hole. Not everything can be controlled – said Ukrainian diplomat.
The President of Ukraine has not ruled out martial law
In case of exacerbation of the situation in the east of the country, the Ukrainian president does not rule out the introduction of war and the subsequent mobilization of the army – spoke about it yesterday in the Lviv region. In his opinion, it is not excluded full-sized military aggression from Russia.
He said the situation in the Donbas and the Crimea has been tightened. If you continue to escalate, then – said Petro Poroshenko – it is possible to introduce martial law. He added that the escalation of fighting pulls it behind the need for further – seventh mobilization. So far, according to the head of the army of Ukraine managed to avoid consumption due to the increasing number of professional soldiers. This year – said Petro Poroshenko – contracts with the Army signed a 45,000 soldiers.
The Ukrainian President also stated that the best way to resolve the conflict is to return the aggressor, namely Russia, the peace talks in the format Norman and the fulfillment by the Kremlin Minsk arrangements peace.
“Financial Times”: Russia is flexing its muscles before the G20
“Financial Times” wrote on Thursday on escalating Russia tensions at the border with Ukraine and expressed the opinion that deciding there for a show of force before the G20 summit the Kremlin wants to force concessions to western countries, starting with the easing of sanctions.
the newspaper points out that the ceasefire between Kiev and pro-Russian separatists in the east Ukraine is becoming more and more fragile. Fighting has intensified in July, and now the Ukrainian authorities and their western allies anxiously watching the strengthening of Russia’s conventional forces on zaanektowanym in 2014, the Crimea and along the Ukrainian border.
“FT” It notes that Russians deployed thousands of troops in the region north of Bryansk, east of Rostov-on-Don, in the south of Crimea and west of the breakaway Moldovan Transnistria. “There are signs that the (Russian forces) are preparing for battle” – writes “FT”.
The newspaper quotes published a week before the opinion of the US think tank the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which pointed to “accelerate preparations for conventional conflict between Russia and Ukraine, “and stressed that” rapidly increasing the likelihood of open war. “
” FT “notes that on Monday the head of the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said take” comprehensive measures “against Kyiv in retaliation – as defined by Moscow – attempted terrorist attack taken by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence.
last week, the Russian Federal Security Service claimed that the Ukrainians were planning to carry out terrorist attacks in the Crimea, the aim of which would be critical infrastructure. According to the FSB liquidated forming a Ukrainian espionage and the thwarted attempt to shift another group of subversive to the Crimea; during the action killed two Russians. The Ukrainian side has denied the allegations. President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko ordered increase the combat readiness of the Ukrainian forces stationed near the administrative border with Crimea and lines of conflict in Donbas.
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Kathleen Weinberger, expert ISW for. Russia and Ukraine, sees a “very clear signs” of readiness of Russians to escalate tensions. Indicates reports of large convoys of military sent to areas of Ukraine controlled by pro-Russian separatists, by sending the Russian troops on the the border with Ukraine, and the increasing presence of the Russian navy in the Black Sea, including the latest submarines armed with missiles maneuvering the type of cruise to attack targets on land.
Weinberger also accepts that there is still a lot of unknowns, if as for the intentions of Russia, which is also the intention of Moscow. According ekspertki such uncertainty is Russia beneficial, and a possible invasion may be beneficial not to be.
“FT” cites the opinion of the former deputy chief of the Ukrainian General staff Gen. Ihor Romanenki, who believes that the Russian invasion of the full scale is not likely, because the “loss for the Putin would be great, and the victory it would not be certain.” Romanenko believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin is trying to “force international leaders to make concessions, starting with leniency and to force Ukraine to accept the interpretation of the agreements Minsk”.
“FT” indicates that Russia depends on elections in Donbas before any truce, which “probably scementowałoby is półautonomię the region and badly weakened the ability of Kiev to the political opposition to Moscow.”
According to Romanenki Russia’s actions are associated with the G20 summit on September 4, when Putin will talk about Ukraine with the leaders of Germany and France.
“FT” cites the opinion of an unnamed representative of the “European intelligence service”, which, according to Russia manipulates the tension in the region – as in the past – on the eve of another round of diplomatic negotiations. the according to the current “saber-rattling” is aimed favorable for Russia reinterpretation agreements Minsk.
Analyst consulting firm IHS Markit, Alex Kokcharov, believes that there will be “controlled escalation along the lines of the conflict” – the severity of artillery fire and fighting . In his view, the seizure by pro-Russian separatists larger territory would be disadvantageous for Russia in the negotiations, while Kiev to provoke hostilities could serve the interests of Moscow. The analyst believes that the Russians want to lead to the fact that the Ukrainian authorities were perceived as unreliable partner and weaken the support enjoyed by the West.
Kokcharov think that fighting may erupt August 24, the 25th anniversary of the Ukrainian independence. Putin would then have ten days to the G20 summit – “enough time to bring the situation uncomfortable for the West.”
“FT” he writes at the end, that European countries are already “very tired due to the Ukraine.” According to newspapers Putin can put that escalating violence and provoking an angry response Kyiv he can lead to breaking the unity of European countries and to achieve favorable for Moscow reinterpreting agreements with Minsk.
PAP / IAR / agkm
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