If Scots vote in Thursday’s referendum for independence, it will have to come to terms with leaving the European Union. Nationalists argue that the return to the bosom of the Community will be quick and easy. This may be wishful thinking, however, and the process will drag due to resistance on the part of states. Life immigrants from EU countries should not vary significantly.
If you win in Thursday’s referendum on independence supporters, it does not come it the next day. Separation from Great Britain will be preceded by lengthy negotiations, mainly regarding the distribution of national wealth, the debt of the state and properties of the raw materials resources under the North Sea.
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Scottish nationalists assume that Independence Day will be March 24, 2016 year. Then all the people of Scotland will face a serious challenge: what next for EU membership? In this case there are no precedents. Opinions on what happens, are contradictory.
This will seamlessly
Nationalists convincing for voting “yes” for independence paint a fairly simple matter. First of all, have no doubt about the fact that Scotland should be in the EU. According to them even before March 2016 years are going to roll the accession negotiations with the Community. They go fast, because Scotland is now part of the EU and meets all the formal requirements.
in the documents nationalists but there is no detailed description of how you want your declared “smooth” maintenance of membership of Scotland in the EU after the declaration of independence. Fall only conclude that the new country will remain in the Community. You can understand that supporters of independence are confident that Scotland not for a moment remain outside the EU. Everything has to be done in the period between the referendum to “Independence Day”.
“There is no doubt that we meet all the requirements for membership. Taking into account our natural resources and abundant fishery is consistent with common sense and the best interest of the EU to our membership continued uninterruptedly “- state nationalists in their official program documents.
Formal requirements
Vision supporters of secession from the United Kingdom may be too optimistic. Top officials from Brussels has repeatedly testified that as a new independent country Scotland will have to go the normal path of accession. Just like everyone else. Compliance with EU standards will accelerate the matter, but did not make trivial.
Normal accession process is the need to formally submit an application for admission to the EU, after which the Commission and the European Council begin the process of negotiations. The candidate must prove that his right congruent with EU requirements. After completion of negotiations Accession Treaty must be ratified by all Member States and among other things the European Parliament.
In practice, this process takes from a few to several years, depending on the candidate. The record quickly through the accession process przebrnęła Sweden and Finland, respectively, in less than four and three years. In the case of Scotland, it may be even shorter, but it is doubtful whether it will be as fast as you would like nationalists.
A lot depends on the political competition between EU countries. In January 2014, the head of the European Commission Jose Manuel Barroso warned that this could be a serious problem for the Scots. – Gaining the consent of all Member States will be extremely difficult. In my view, it can be downright impossible – he said. Barroso may want to have your statement of independence scare Scots and deliberately drew a sketch it. But part may be right.
Gaining the consent of all Member States will be extremely difficult. In my view, it can be downright impossible.
Jose Manuel Barroso on the accession to the EU, Scotland
Scotland in the heat of political games
says Assoc. Leszek Autumn, lecturer at Collegium Civitas, the whole process a lot will depend on the good will of the EU. In his opinion, actually in theory be carried out the essential part of the accession negotiations, even before Scotland clear of Great Britain, and after the fact formalities quickly based on previous findings. In his view, however, will be more difficult later ratification process. According to Dr. In the fall, the good will of stakeholders, this process may take a year and half.
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However, Brussels does not have to accept the earlier informal negotiations with the Scots. Formally for accession to the EU can apply for the state, and before March 2016 years Scotland will still be a part of the United Kingdom. Then the Scots will have to start negotiating soon after the formal declaration of independence and will spend a few years outside the EU. – Negotiations may take Scotland about three years, but then it will be a problem in obtaining the support of all Member States – says Assoc. Peter Wawrzyk from the Department of European Studies at Warsaw University.
What countries can depend on creating problems Scots? Those who themselves are struggling with independence movements at home. Resistance can place inter alia, Belgium, France and Spain, fearing separatist sentiments heat in Basque and Flemish. According to Dr. Wawrzyk, they may even block the start of accession negotiations themselves. In his opinion, resistance may weaken over time, if there is no increase in sentiment for independence of the Basque and Flemish.
The sentiment expressed in Madrid on Wednesday, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy. Referendum for independence, whether in Scotland or in Catalonia (region of Spain with a strong separatist tendencies), called “torpedoes” and attacks on European integration. In his opinion separatist bring with them “economic recession and poverty.” He warned that the re-joining the EU can take new Member “years”. Rajoy did not explicitly stated, however, that it will block the ambitions of Scots.
Strong “no” to discounts
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Regardless of the reluctance of Belgium, France and Spain against Scottish independence, according to Dr. In autumn there will be no long-term blocking negotiations. – Durable antagonizing a potential new member will not be in the interest of the older – he says. Dr. Wawrzyk careful, however, that some states may even try to block the start of accession negotiations themselves.
Problems can also come from the other side, with the European Parliament. Portal Euractiv quoted anonymous statements of the two largest factions, the socialists and the Christian Democrats, which shows that there is no agreement for the preservation of an independent Scotland by the special treatment enjoyed by the current United Kingdom. Scots want to keep fought by the government in London rebates on contributions to the EU budget, and special treatment for the control of borders and a common currency.
Anonymous MPs argue that the special treatment does not come into play. Scotland is to be treated like any new candidate to the EU. This means, inter alia, the need for a commitment to the opening of borders and the adoption of the euro. This is contrary to the position of the nationalists who want to keep in Scotland, the British pound (although the government in London says that it will not be possible). – If they insist for special treatment, they can be very hard to join the EU – say the caller Euractiv.
Immigrants suspended
Presented by the nationalist vision of a quick and painless entry into the EU of Scotland as an independent state is therefore an election gambit. The accession process will be exposed to the usual political games within the community and members of the EU do not have to unanimously opt for a quick return independent of Scots to “European family”. It is almost certain that in the end come to this. The question is how much time the Scots will have to spend in the “vestibule” of the EU. Because in the history of the Community was not yet such a situation, it is difficult to put clearly forecast. Asked by tvn24.pl experts talk about the period from 1.5 years to several years.
What in the meantime will happen with Scotland and immigrants working there? New independent country certainly will have to go through a turbulent period of transition, especially for the economy, which may indirectly affect immigrants. However, besides the situation of foreigners working in Scotland will not change significantly. As explained Dr. Autumn, Scottish right after the declaration of independence will remain the same. In the rules under which immigrants work in Scotland. Unless the Scots decide to tear down the existing regime, which, according to the researcher, it seems unlikely.
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Author: Maciej Kucharczyk / Source: tvn24.pl
By choosing independence, the Scots come out of the EU. They will be able to come back? – TVN 24
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