Europe and Russia
President of Petro Poroshenko said in Warsaw that will be applied for a waiver of the Ukraine pozablokowego state status. I do not know if he did it mainly for domestic politics – presumably he and Prime Minister Yatsenyuk compete rather than cooperate, or whether this statement is a deliberate element of foreign policy. Regardless of the motives of the President of Ukraine, it seems to me that for the first time in the conflict Ukrainian – Russian, Ukrainian side is trying to take a strategic initiative, at least in the diplomatic sphere. Although the government is p. Yatsenyuk already appeared in the Supreme Council to change the status of the state, and he often Yatsenyuk mentioned the necessity and desirability of Ukraine’s accession to NATO, but Poroshenko did not take this subject, what thing came down to the level of internal disputes between Ukrainian politicians. .
The official announcement of the capital of a country belonging to NATO, the intention of changing the current status of Ukraine creates, in my opinion, the new situation. Russia, of course, protest vigorously. However, rational public discussion has important arguments Ukraine: had belonged to NATO, there probably would have lost the Crimea, and even rebellion in the east probably would not. Of course, in politics does not necessarily count rational public debate, but that Russia must see to it that beneficial for Ukraine coincidence did not give it (Ukraine) relatively quickly, because in 15 years, let’s join NATO.
By the way, I wonder what the President of Russia promised the president of France? Perhaps the pressure on Ukraine, that this was formally adopted by the rebel “folk republic” in the state. Not circuits: the Donetsk and Luhansk, and the People’s Republic of Donetsk and Lugansk, probably slightly modified. Do not guess, or reasons, I have not found a match official explanation for changes in attitude Merkel to President Putin. As usual, humanly pissed at him? Concluded that the pursuit of dialogue and understanding has no effect, for it jeopardizes its position as leader of Europe? Other?
Russia is currently growing economic problems. Very rapidly declining value of the ruble, which, for all intents and no one knows why. Sanctions, and especially the drop in oil prices was probably the trigger. Withdrawal of capital from emerging markets could be seen as early as 2013: European exchanges, North American and Japanese stock prices increased by more than 20%, the BRICS group decreased by 6.5% .. Currently, unless operates mainly lack of trust the Russians to their own currency and indirectly lack of trust in the authorities. The citizens of Russia do not expect that the government will do anything good for the economy.
In the case of depreciation of the ruble is beneficial for customers in Russia. Who is alive and has the money – the Russians and tourists, buy electronics, cars, and what you can. Producers and traders, however, raise the price or suspend sales in Russia, which will lead to higher inflation. Central Bank of the Russian leadership clearly unable to respond effectively ( Standard sure there is insufficient knowledge ). Recently raised the base rate from 10.5 to 17 percent and the ruble against the dollar immediately lost 15 percent.
Is possible economic crisis in Russia hurt us? Probably yes, if only because we are counted among the emerging markets. In addition, the decline in EU exports to Russia may cause a decrease in Polish exports to other EU countries, the deterioration in the economic situation of these countries and, as a result, public sentiment, which hit, among other things, a Polish immigrant, etc.
The impact of possible Russian crisis on Europe would not be perhaps too important, if not in the EU alone coexisted few adverse events: the crisis in the euro zone is not known if mastered, high unemployment among young people, the growing importance of nationalist movements and different extremes. As a result, a strong, aggressive opponent is dangerous for us, but overwhelmed opponent crisis may be even more dangerous. The situation is changing rapidly. I do not know why, how and in which direction. I doubt if anyone knows.
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