In fact, Greece already bankrupt . It is a country that has a big problem with handling its obligations without external support. The next edition of the Greek tragedy is ongoing. Theoretically, June 5 Greece must repay another tranche of its debts to the International Monetary Fund (about 300 million euros, including 1.55 billion in June euros). If you do not do not receive the next tranche of aid from international institutions amounting to more than 7 billion euros.
Greece in this game uses moral blackmail: if you do not get the money may declare insolvency, which is a simple way to exit from the euro zone. The biggest bogey before the formal sanction of bankruptcy Greece is just the fears of European politicians against the effects of the so-called. grexitu – that is the starting Greek from the euro zone. Although analysts say that the market has long been prepared for it, and grexit is “in prices” is no one really has any idea what the consequences would be thrown out of the eurozone Hellas.
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– do not even know on what basis such output would take place, what would the consequences. There’s a big psychological barrier – but also technical – before making such a move – says Grzegorz Maliszewski, chief economist at Bank Millennium. A Rafal Benecki of ING Bank adds that such uncertainty and instability is now the last thing the eurozone needs.
– Exit of Greece have shown that the presence in the euro zone is not given once and for all and is optional. And this could trigger some separatist movements within the zone, which could begin to burst it from the inside. Such a scenario would be bad, because after all the turbulence of the crisis, the European economy should focus on rebuilding the economy. And for that you need a stabilization – evaluates Benecki.
But the matter is not so clear. According to Kamila Cisowski with PKO BP bankruptcy of Greece would leave Europe for health . The Greek government does not seem to be determined to continue reforms, unlike other so-called. peripheral eurozone countries (Portugal, Spain, Italy). But the expected financial support.
– In the long term it would probably be better ejection of Greece from the euro zone and seems to have the will to some extent exists. Theoretically, the International Monetary Fund that takes a tougher stance towards Greece than the EU institutions, but it seems to me that both the European Central Bank and the heads of most major countries in the EU can take that risk – says Kamil Cisowski.
The arguments? Risk domino effect in the euro area (where the collapse of Greece would cause the bankruptcy of the other members of the zone) is now minimal. Countries that during the debt crisis had problems similar to the Greek uporządkowały public finances and economically onto the straight. The market appreciates, because the bond yields of Spain and Portugal is now a record low. Besides, there is also a risk of economic collapse the whole eurozone – by Cisowski Greece generates only 1.3 percent. the GDP of the entire zone. The more that the debt crisis Greece has few private creditors – its insolvency would hit primarily in international institutions like the IMF or the ECB. It is also one of the reasons why representatives of these institutions in general still take the talks with Greece.
– From this perspective, the EU will have very little to lose at the output of Greece, and would divest itself of the problem, which today seems to be unsolvable, because in Greece there is no political will to implement reforms to end – says Kamil Cisowski.
What grexit mean for us? First of all weakening of the zloty against the dollar and the Swiss franc. The confusion that there would after the insolvency of Greece would end up weakening the euro and the so-called capital flight. emerging markets. And to those included in Poland.
– The weakening of the euro really 80 percent. cases causes a weakening of the zloty. Gold often reacts more strongly than the euro itself on what is happening in the euro area. With high probability can therefore assume that gold will lose the franc and the dollar, because the euro is also to weaken against these currencies – says Kamil Cisowski.
On the other hand Poland has a rather weak trade relations with Greece, our financial institutions are not carried interests there – so Greek weakening of the zloty should not take long. Few also likely that suffered the dynamics of Polish GDP. And this for two reasons. First-Polish trade with Greece is minimal. The second – the weakening of the euro could paradoxically help the economy of the euro, because strengthen European exports (would become relatively cheaper, and thus more competitive). For Polish companies, closely cooperating with entrepreneurs from the euro area (especially in Germany), it would be very good news.
economists, however, hardly anyone believes in grexitu scenario. Grzegorz Maliszewski says that the problem will be solved as before: the impending date of payment of the debt Greece will go into a trial of strength with its creditors.
– Here everyone plays his game, but the Greeks do not want to really declare insolvency and the euro area does not want to throw them out from among its members. The most likely conclusion is therefore short-term compromises that will soothe a while sentiment in the market. But the problem will not solve – says Grzegorz Maliszewski.
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