The referendum in the Netherlands: Blow for Ukraine, Russia’s success and eurosceptics – Virtual Poland

• The Dutch voted against the association agreement with Ukraine

 • It is a signal for Kiev: Ukraine can not count on accession to the EU

 • The result of the vote will strengthen the Euro-skeptics and supporters Brexitu

Is a group of 2.5 million voters may invalidate a treaty to which the consent issued 28 of the 29 countries, representing over 550 million people ? The Treaty, which took four years to develop and for which – indirectly – killed hundreds of people? The answer that you saw in the night from Wednesday to Thursday is yes. Dutch voters voted against ratification of the Association Agreement EU-Ukraine. And although the turnout was only 32 per cent., A referendum is not formally binding, and the organizers themselves admitted that they do not care a matter of agreement with Ukraine, all indications are that the Dutch government does not ignore the vox populi. It’s a big blow to the ambitions of Ukrainian integration with Europe, but perhaps even more for the Union.

The referendum result has long been known: as predicted by the “no” voted 61 per cent. voters. The only mystery was whether turnout will exceed the threshold of 30 percent, allowing them to be considered valid and forcing the Dutch parliament to consider ratification. Finally, the threshold has been exceeded, but the Dutch standards (in the elections to the parliament vote usually 75-80 percent. Voter) turnout was extremely low – probably the lowest in the history of nation-wide voting. Despite this, according to observers, will not remain without effect on the government’s decision, which – like the governments of the 27 other EU countries – called for the ratification of the agreement with Ukraine.

– I expect that there will be at least to delay ratification, mainly for fear of strengthening the populist tendencies of voters – WP says Michiel van Blommestein, a journalist of the weekly “Elsevier”.

 These projections confirmed the same Prime Minister Mark Rutte, who after the results announced that the “consult” the result of the vote of the parliament and Brussels, but “with a turnout above 30 percent and as much advantage of the camp” no “has the feeling that the ratification can not come simply to fruition. ”

This greatly complicates the situation not only for Ukraine but for the whole European Union – and the same the Netherlands, which currently holds the EU presidency. The economic part of the agreement with Ukraine is already in force (although as yet on a temporary basis), while the political part – including, among others, the abolition of visas for Ukrainians, help in the fight against corruption and military cooperation – still must be approved by the Netherlands to fully came into force. Therefore, the full entry into force of the agreement is unlikely and would entail huge legal complications.

– Of course, the Dutch prime minister can not simply do not take into account the results of the vote. Rutte now has several options, but none are easy. May ratify only the commercial part of the Treaty or submit objections to it, for example on visa-free travel. I also think that some EU governments would be quietly grateful Dutch if you would come to this – says HR Pieter Cleppe, an expert of the institute Open Europe in Brussels.
 

The problem is that any change in the agreement or the objections probably entail the need to renegotiate the treaty and re-ratification by all states. It is worth remembering that the Association Agreement negotiations lasted more than four years, and the ratification process – an extra year. Therefore, the most likely scenario may be different.

– Rutte probably go to Brussels and will try to Union issued a special statement in which it finds that Ukraine will not be in the near future member of the EU and the Association Agreement is not this is the first step. The same is contained indeed in the contract itself, but the Dutch important. Especially since just a few days ago, the Polish foreign minister said in an interview that Ukraine should join the EU – says Rem Korteweg, an analyst at the Centre for European Reform in London. Another option is to negotiate by the Dutch government called. opt-out, or to exclude it from the contract. As indicated by the expert, it would be troublesome, however, an alternative, because this would encourage other countries to win their similar concessions for themselves.
 

Regardless of what form will be adopted agreement with Kiev, is a political blow for Ukraine, for the vision of integration with the EU has been the cause of protests Euromajdanu, and is now one of the main motivating factors for reform. Meanwhile, the referendum in the Netherlands has sent a clear signal to Ukrainians: Ukraine can not count on EU membership. This signal was also heard – and welcomed – in Russia.
 

– Using the analogy of war, it’s like – struggling with a problem of security – to say that the military option is not an option. Weakens thus its negotiating position – says Korteweg. – But it is a problem for an EU foreign policy. It plays on two levels: at the level of the Union, where the problem is how to respond to the movements of Russia and to help Ukraine, and at the local level, which often contradicts the objectives of the Union – he added.
 

The result of the referendum in the Netherlands is also bad news for the entire Union. Because it is the EU itself, and not the agreement with Ukraine, was actually the subject of a referendum. They admitted it yourselves organizers of the vote from Eurosceptic initiative GeenPeil.

– The organizers expressed very clearly in terms of their objectives: Ukraine they do not care. They just want to exit from the EU and the Netherlands will therefore sabotage any EU initiative in every possible way – said Michiel van Blommestein. Opportunity to not missing: it helps them in the new law on referendums by which to convene the vote, enough to collect 300,000 signatures and the required turnout at the polls is only 30 percent. All indications are that the Dutch Eurosceptics will benefit from it again soon. Another goal is to be torpedoing TTIP, free trade agreements the US-EU.
 

– The referendum in the Netherlands is another longer signal sent by the voters in the electorate speaks against greater powers to the Union, against greater integration. Ukraine was here only outsider victim – says Cleppe. – This should give a thought to decision-makers in Brussels, which the European Union want the voters – he adds.
 

But this is also another victory enhancers getting stronger current Eurosceptic Europe. It is symptomatic, congratulations to the Dutch made the leaders of the far right parties in Europe, including Marine Le Pen of the French National Front, and Nigel Farage, leader of the British United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP). Farage and part of the British Conservative hopes that the referendum in the Netherlands encourage Britons to vote at another upcoming vote: exit on Britain from the European Union.
 

See also: Referendum ws. Brexitu will be held on June 23